State of U.S. Tariffs: September 4, 2025 Report

Yale’s Budget Lab (TBL) estimated the effects of all US tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 through September 3 under two scenarios.

In the baseline Sept 3, 2025 scenario, consumers can expect an average effective tariff rate of 17.4%, the highest since 1935. After shifts in consumption, the average tariff rate will be 16.4%, the highest since 1936. In scenario two, the invalidation of the IEEPA tariffs, consumers’ average effective tariff rate is 6.8%, the highest since 1969. Consumption shifts show the model maintaining at 6.8%.

Click here to get the full report content and download the excel data sheet.